Monday, October 09, 2006

The Index Ain't Been Sober Since Maybe October Of Last Year

Five Deep Breaths, courtesy 2004

: Winning margin, USC-Stanford, last weekend in September.
6: Winning margin, USC-Cal, very next game.
8: Winning margin, USC-Oregon State, first weekend in November.
5: Winning margin, USC-UCLA, last game of season.
36: Winning margin, USC-No. 1 Oklahoma Orange Bowl, for the national title.

Five More Deep Breaths, courtesy 2005

: Arizona State lead with 3:44 left in game, USC-ASU, first weekend in October.
: USC lead early in the 4th quarter, USC-Arizona, very next game.
3: Winning margin, Northern Indiana Affair, very next game.
6:22: Time remaing in game when USC took lead, USC-Fresno State.
47: Winning margin, USC-No. 11 UCLA, very next game.

And now: Inhale... Hold... Exhale... 2006!
6: Winning margin, USC-Washington State, last weekend in September.
5: Yardline on which USC intercepts WSU Hail Mary on final snap.
6: Winning margin, USC-Washington, first weekend in October.
15: Yardline on which UW's final drive stalls, despite copious time-management assistance from refs.

EA-SY! Breath! BREATH!!!!

(by way, anybody get the title of this post yet?)

Just what do we have here:
  1. Two up-market football teams blow a season's worth of want-to and luck in their once-a-year shot at the shiniest program in the country (consider: UW scored a TD on a fake kick(!) but SC was the team playing with house money? Really?)
  2. With SC breaking in a new QB.
  3. In the the last weekend of September and first of October.
  4. And, just like at least 10 times in the past two years, it almost worked.
  5. And, just like at least 10 times in the past two years, SC came through.

So what is the general concensus? From today's ESPN CF podcast:

David Albright, to Ivan Maisel: "...maybe you can figure out what's wrong with USC."
Maisel: "They are having more trouble than anybody dreamed, aren't they?"

Or from the AP's story on Florida leaping-frogging USC to No. 2:

Mike Radano of the Courier-Post in Cherry Hill, N.J. [ed - Courier-Post's nearest IA teams: Temple and Rutgers], was one of many voters to move Florida ahead of USC this week. "USC hasn't been its same dominant self," Radano said. "I thought they got a little fortunate yesterday."
Really? USC got 'a little fortunate' but Florida, after beating LSU, is the New Economy? Sure about that? Let's take a look:

5: LSU turnovers.
52: Consecutive I-A teams to lose after committing 5 turnovers in a game, according to CBS (last team to win with 5 turnovers: LSU! ta da!)
1: LSU fumbles in endzones recoverd by LSU for FLA safety.
16: Florida points off turnover/kickoff-safety.
1: LSU punts blocked.
2: LSU turnovers in Florida Redzone.
1: Florida yardline LSU's Jamarcus Russell fumbled on in second quarter.
17: Plays in drive leading to fumble.
1: Number of offensive plays later that Russell threw an interception.
2: LSU first-play-interception drives.
10: Seconds into second-half Florida scored safety when LSU returner fumbled kickoff, recovered in endzone and was tackled (NOT one of the 5 turnovers).
14-102: Florida Penalities-Yards penalized. That's 7 penalites per spots in AP poll. Sounds like a contender.

But Florida is No. 2 (next to Holy Writ Ohio State) and USC was 'very fortunate.'

Didn't we already sit through our annual eruption of irrational SEC exuburance after Cal-Tennessee? Didn't it take Air Force one week to burst that bubble?
And wasn't Auburn already composing outraged letters last week about being left out of the BCS championship game?

Pardon while I fail to evacuate my bowels trying to decode the many enigmas of Florida's offense, like 'if Tebow comes in, just what kind of Mad Scientist-shit is Urban trying to pull?'


Anonymous said...

You forget that Tebow is the second coming of Vince Young....except he only plays 15 snaps a game.

Displaced Trojan said...

Excellent work.

The Displaced Trojan

jonathantu said...

Numbers imply logic. You're treading on dangerous ground here.

Matt said...

My numbers are undisputable because I make them up myself! My logic is unquestioned, because I will delete any comments that dare disagree! My ground is rock solid, as is every trap door until the moment it swings open!

foster said...

1. Citing Florida forcing turnovers and blocking punts and scoring points off of turnovers as NEGATIVES for Florida has got to be one of the most absurd things I have ever seen from a college football fan.

2. Other than Ohio State, Texas manhandled their entire schedule last year (52-13 average score), whereas USC struggled repeatedly. I heard few complaints from the SC crowd then.

3. I am a Big 12 fan but like USC and their fans after my Rose Bowl experience last year, but also understand that the SEC was, is and seemingly always will be the best conference in college football.

4. The #1 team in the Pac 10 from last year (USC) blows out the #9 team in the SEC from last year (Ark), while the #7 team from the SEC last year (Tenn) blows out the #4 team from the PAC 10 last year (Cal).

5. USC looks anywhere from lackluster to just plain bad against Wash, Wash St, AZ, and Neb. Florida looks pretty good to excellent against LSU, Bama, Tenn and Kentucky over the same stretch.

6. The Tebow experiment is working. Very well. You are really grasping here.

Matt said...

Oh foster....

SC 'struggled' against its conference where Texas did not because... the Pac 10 is good, and the Big 12 is a joke. A laugh-out loud collection of Temple-on-the-praires. At best you're the 4th-best SEC conference, possibly ahead of the ACC.

if the Index is reaching - and, really, its why we're here - then so is the Ark-SC/Cal-Tenn analysis. As it happens, I was at the Cal-Tenn game (scroll down a bit, until you see the pic of the hot girls in orange jerseys). Everyone missed it, but that game was a first-game fluke. I'd concede the same to SC's blowout of Ark. First games are essentially preseason.

Perhaps FLa 'forced' those turnovers. Fine - I certainly think FLa is good. But they didn't make Russell drop it on the 1 (7 point swing). Nor force LSU's returner fumble it into the endzone (2 points, plus an immediate FLA TD on the ensuing downhill drive).

And I forgot to mention that in these last two supposed dirt-on-the-casket games with the Ws, SC was down an All-American reciever.

Finally: Tebow's fun! But if i had a heisman vote, i'd give it to Leak for running the train and for watching all his pub go to a second-string platoon running back (cuz that's what he is) and not going TO about it.

Anonymous said...

SC scored on the fake kick, dumbass

LD said...

Where'd you get the number on consecutive losses by teams that commit 5 turnovers? Any link? How long had it been since that time LSU did it?

I'm not disputing the number, just wanted a source. Georgia had 5 turnovers this weekend and won, I wondered how significant it actually was (5 years? 1 season?).