JaMarcus and Brady Quinn, or: The Case For Tebow (pre-draft)

A slightly-expanded for 2011 (weekend prior to Tebow-v-Brady, possibly the zenith of Tebow-time) email I sent to friends prior to the 2010 draft, when dissing Tebow was a full time thing.

Screw the draft and the NFL, etc.  maybe i shouldn't be even looking at it.

But something is bothering me:  someone is going to fail to take Tim Tebow.  Probably the whole league is going to fail to put Tebow on thier team before someone does with a later pick.  Only...  how the HELL do you NOT take Tebow?  If Carson Palmer or Payton Manning was up there, maybe you'd not take Tebow, but then again maybe not.

If you even barely accidently stumble across any draft talk, here are the Big 3 QBs who "translate" to the NFL:

(click for rest of post)

1. Bradford, Mr. First Pick, just missed a full season to a bad shoulder.  Drafting a guy who was too hurt to play until workout time makes no sense to me.  How is this not the Greg Oden/Ralph Sampson Corolary?  Do season-ending shoulder injuries ever really heal for QBs?  if so, how often do they not?  Often enough to wait a round or two if others are available, I bet.
2. Jimmy Clausen.  The guy was the starting QB for Notre Dame and couldn't get psyched about it.  He's gonna play hard for the Rams?  Or anyone else?  He never scared anybody in college, why does he excite anyone now?
3. Colt.  Pretty terrific guy, it seems, only not a drop back gunner and now ALSO with a wierd-o strange injury on his record.  Also, Jordan Shipley almost dragged Colt's freshman replacement to the National TItle, so how much of Colt wasn't Colt?

Not on the list is Tebow, because he doesn't "translate" or have "NFL qualities." He's listed on some 'boards' behind the guy from Cincinatti (who, I admit, was a gamer) and a guy from Central Michiagn.  I guess because all he is is a crazy action super hero who can throw the ball 7 miles from his knees and will ABSOLUTELY in the first 2 or 3 weeks of his career simply run over some unlucky 5-time Pro Bowl defender in what will instantly be a franchise-defining, fanbase-multiplying, season-ticket-evaporating All TIme Epic moment.

What he WON'T do:

• rape strippers
• get shot by his mistress
• fight dogs
• go missing
• leave his pregnant wife/gf
• be on facebook with fat chicks (lookin' at you, Leinart)
• tweet anything about Yale

He WILL

• love Jesus
• show up at 5am to watch film
• re-boot the mojo of everyone in your locker room this side - possibly THAT side - of Randy Moss
• adopt colorful orphans
• smile ALL THE FUCKING TIME
• fill your stadium with gorgeous women
• and - again - put your franchise on the good side of The New Bo-Vs-Boz Moment by the end of October.

These are not "translations"  These are SURE THINGS.

Also: He is EQUALLY AS LIKELY, if not much more so, to win you a Super Bowl than any of the other QBs available.
 
Why?

Remember when Alex Smith would "translate?"  Remember when we were sure of the 'translation' of Eli, JP Losman, Byron Leftwich, JaMarcus Russel (he wasn't just an Al Davis fever dream - the world believed), Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, David Carr and Joey Harrington who went No 1 and No 3 IN THE SAME DRAFT, Pennington and Tim Couch for F's SAKE!!!  Culpepper, Cabe McNown.  Can I stop?  Everyone above was a first-round pick.

In fact, going back to 03, 21 QBs have gone in the first round as first-picks for teams.  here are the only guys who have made ANY impact:

• 03 - Carson Palmer - jury out - plus Grossman who did factually play in a SB, and you can make your own judgement on his value.
• 04 - Big Ben, Phil Rivers and another iffy guy with a SB appearance (in fact, a win), Eli.   Banner year for the draft, even with Kyle Boller in the middle of it.  (though Boller did just fine:  I just found out he is now engaged to Carrie Prejean, the scorching hot, Gay-Bashing Ms. California)
• 05 - Aaron Rodgers went 24th and he may end with a career (2011 update: HA!).  Jason Campbell may be sneaky-good eventually but just got released.
• 06 - VY, Jay Cutler.  Borderline headcases with intermitten years as starters.  Not exactly flagships, and VY wasn't a 'translation' guy anyway.
• 07 - Oh-fer  (JaMarcus and Brady Quinn.  Really, if I had to re-name this post, it would just be "JaMarcus and Brady") (2011 update:  I Did!)
• 08 - Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco - big year 1s, decent years 2s, we'll see.
• 09 - Stafford, Sanchize.  One Win and one non-Fail.

So bookened by the USC guys, I count maybe 9 dudes - counting both Ryan and Flacco, which is generous - who you would call a Win if the criteria is, "knowing what we know now, would the team do it again"  Or we could also say, "would changing the pick to a world-class defensive end or left tackle and bringing in a retread free agent QB have won you more games."  If that's the criteria, then Eli and Stafford drop off and suddenly the "translation"-school of drafting is 7 of 21.

So the 'translation' math worked for 7 out of 21 QBs since 2003 and utterly blew it - cataclysmically - on JaMarcus, Quinn, Leinart and Losman.  The rest come in between good-not-great and barely-making-it.

Here's the fun part:  the above sample - back to 2003 - was a GOLDEN AGE of drafting QBs compared to the previous five years.  Going back 5 more years thru 1998, here are, in order, QBs taken in the first round:

1. David Carr
2. Joey Harrington
3. Patrick Ramsey
4. Michael Vick
5. Chad Pennington
6. Tim Couch
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Akili Smith
9. Daunte Culpepper
10. Cade McNown
11. Peyton Manning
12. Ryan Leaf

Wins: Peyton, McNabb and Vick - none of which help the argument because a 3yo could have drafted Payton and both McNabb and Vick were "reaches".  Unmitigated Catastrophes:  the whole list, minus those three.

Meanwhile, among the last 20 QBs taken in the SECOND round was Favre, Jake the Snake and Drew Brees, Kordell Stewart (hey, now - that's 2 AFC title games you're snickering at) and Chad Henne (as you may have guessed from Favre cracking that list, about half as many QBs get taken in the 2nd round as first, so you have to go back further than 98 to find 20 QBs.  Favre was 19-picks ago. 20 was the immortal Browning Nagle)

Put another way (UPDATED with 2011 Super Bowl results, but excluding 2010 and 2011 draft classes), among the 33 QBs taken in the First Round since 1998:

• 4: Super Bowl Winners - both Mannings, Big Ben (X 2), Aaron Rodgers.
• 2: Additional Super Bowl appearances - Grossman, McNabb; Payton and Big Ben have also lost SBs.

Among the 20 QBs taken in the Second Round since 1991, ie QBs judged Not Good Enough by The System:

• 2: Super Bowl winners
• 3: Total Super Bowl appearances.

In percentages, then - QBs by round, Super Bowl success (all updated for 2011):

• .1515: Percentage of First Round QBs to deliver a Super Bowl Win.
• .18: Percentage of First Round QBs to make the Super Bowl.
• .10 : % 2nd Round QBs to deliver a SB win.

And if we stop comparing 1st Round to 2nd Round and instead just compare 1st Rounders to Everybody else, its WAY worse: just since 1998 the Super Bowl has been won by Brad Johnson and has been lost by such immortals as Rich Gannon (4th round), Chris Chandler (4th round) and Matt Hasselback.

In fact, here ya go:

• 5: Super Bowls Won by First-Round QBs drafted since 1998.
• 5: Super Bowls involving QBs drafted in the 6th round (Brady x 4, Hasselback)
• 4: Super Bowls that involved UNDRAFTED QBs.

• 3: Super Bowls since 1998 in which BOTH QBs were First Rounders.
• 3: Super Bowls since 1998 in which BOTH QBs were 6th round or later.

Wow - so on any given year, you have an EQUAL CHANCE of watching a Super Bowl between two QBs whose names never came up on draft day as a Super Bowl where both QBs were in the Green Room. 

So now we return our gaze to this year's Green Room and the three beaming, impossibly good looking "translation" guys: broken-ass Sam Bradford, broken-ass, fleet-footed Colt McCoy and the utterly uninspiring Jimmy Clausen.

and over here, loving Jesus and really truly in the deepest, warmest, most honest soulful part of his heart praying and hoping and wishing and BELIEVING that you - yes, you who didn't even know he knew who you are - that YOU are going to have yourself the BEST most terrific and fulfilling day you possibly can on this perfect happy blue green earth, is Tim Tebow who would LOVE to be your QB and he means Love with the kind of open, happy, Southern-born love he's been perfecting every day of his life without fail or pause cuz you only get one chance to make good things happen, and he would LOVE to inspire your team and fulfill his own dreams but only if its your dream too cuz its all about the Journey and if this isn't yours then, man, that is 100-percent awesome-cool-all-good brother, because he is gonna be just fine and find his way and pray for you -honest and truly with eyes closed which he never does at any other time of the day - that you (yes, YOU!) and your precious family have all the success and blessed love and happiness you can bear today, tomorrow and everyday from here until we all meet in the soft, warm embrace of Our Lord.  God Bless.




Data set: the full list of QBs from the first 2 rounds going back to 1990:

Round	Pick	Player	Name	Team	College
1	1	1	Matthew Stafford	Lions	Georgia
1	5	5	Mark Sanchez	Jets	USC
1	17	17	Josh Freeman	Buccaneers	Kansas State
1	3	3	Matt Ryan	Falcons	Boston College
1	18	18	Joe Flacco	Ravens	Delaware
1	1	1	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	Louisiana State
1	22	22	Brady Quinn	Browns	Notre Dame
1	3	3	Vince Young	Titans	Texas
1	10	10	Matt Leinart	Cardinals	USC
1	11	11	Jay Cutler	Broncos	Vanderbilt
1	1	1	Alex D. Smith	49ers	Utah
1	24	24	Aaron Rodgers	Packers	California
1	25	25	Jason Campbell	Redskins	Auburn
1	1	1	Eli Manning	Chargers	Mississippi
1	4	4	Philip Rivers	Giants	North Carolina State
1	11	11	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	Miami (OH)
1	22	22	J.P. Losman	Bills	Tulane
1	1	1	Carson Palmer	Bengals	USC
1	7	7	Byron Leftwich	Jaguars	Marshall
1	19	19	Kyle Boller	Ravens	California
1	22	22	Rex Grossman	Bears	Florida
1	1	1	David Carr	Texans	Fresno State
1	3	3	Joey Harrington	Lions	Oregon
1	32	32	Patrick Ramsey	Redskins	Tulane
1	1	1	Michael Vick	Falcons	Virginia Tech
1	18	18	Chad Pennington	Jets	Marshall
1	1	1	Tim Couch	Browns	Kentucky
1	2	2	Donovan McNabb	Eagles	Syracuse
1	3	3	Akili Smith	Bengals	Oregon
1	11	11	Daunte Culpepper	Vikings	Central Florida
1	12	12	Cade McNown	Bears	UCLA
1	1	1	Peyton Manning	Colts	Tennessee
1	2	2	Ryan Leaf	Chargers	Washington State
1	26	26	Jim Druckenmiller	49ers	Virginia Tech
1	3	3	Steve McNair	Oilers	Alcorn State
1	5	5	Kerry Collins	Panthers	Penn State
1	3	3	Heath Shuler	Redskins	Tennessee
1	6	6	Trent Dilfer	Buccaneers	Fresno State
1	1	1	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots	Washington State
1	2	2	Rick Mirer	Seahawks	Notre Dame
1	0	0	Dave Brown	Giants	Duke
1	6	6	David Klingler	Bengals	Houston
1	25	25	Tommy Maddox	Broncos	UCLA
1	16	16	Dan McGwire	Seahawks	San Diego State
1	24	24	Todd Marinovich	Raiders	USC
1	1	1	Jeff George	Colts	Illinois
1	7	7	Andre Ware	Lions	Houston
2	12	44	Pat White	Dolphins	West Virginia
2	25	56	Brian Brohm	Packers	Louisville
2	26	57	Chad Henne	Dolphins	Michigan
2	4	36	Kevin Kolb	Eagles	Houston
2	8	40	John Beck	Dolphins	Brigham Young
2	11	43	Drew Stanton	Lions	Michigan State
2	17	49	Kellen Clemens	Jets	Oregon
2	32	64	Tarvaris Jackson	Vikings	Alabama State
2	1	32	Drew Brees	Chargers	Purdue
2	22	53	Quincy Carter	Cowboys	Georgia
2	28	59	Marques Tuiasosopo	Raiders	Washington
2	19	50	Shaun King	Buccaneers	Tulane
2	30	60	Charlie Batch	Lions	Eastern Michigan
2	12	42	Jake Plummer	Cardinals	Arizona State
2	12	42	Tony Banks	Rams	Michigan State
2	13	45	Todd Collins	Bills	Michigan
2	28	60	Kordell Stewart	Steelers	Colorado
2	12	40	Matt Blundin	Chiefs	Virginia
2	18	46	Tony Sacca	Cardinals	Penn State
2	6	33	Brett Favre	Falcons	Southern Mississippi
2	7	34	Browning Nagle	Jets	Louisville